I spent Saturday afternoon and early evening at Knox Gardens Primary in Melbourne. I was handing out How To Vote cards for the Liberal Party in the Aston by-election until the polling booth shut at 6pm and then followed two hours of as 'scrutineer' watching officials from the Australian Electoral Commission counting votes in the school gymnasium.
The Liberal party has moved to the left which has lost liberal voters. John Howard himself started moving to the left from when he was first elected. He was one who decided to accept the lies of the IPCC and went along with Kyoto. Turnbull before turning to the liberals wanted to Join the ALP. He went on to start the destruction of the Liberals.
I believe the junk statement of Pesutto concerning Trans. people and condemning Moira Deeming resulted in a large number of Liberals sending a signal they want nothing to do with a weak woke party particularly in Victoria. Peter Dutton will get some past liberal members back if he gets rid of Pesutto and lays some policies for the party. In the Federal spear they need to get rid of the useless Birmingham and that Andrew Bragg. Great that Dutton and the coalition will not back the Yes vote. In fact aborigines should not be recognised in the constitution other than being ordinary citizen.
I think the wording that Tony Abbott suggested for the preamble only mentioned aboriginals as being the first inhabitants and the British as bringing nationhood and emigrants as bringing diversity. Such a statement includes everybody, not just the aboriginal people.
The IPA promotes and explains the values which have been foundational to the success of Australia on any number of measures. It does so through many outlets to get its messages out to the Australian public. There are a number of other sources and individuals with similar goals, but none which can remotely compare with the IPA.
I am a very long-standing and active Liberal Party member. However, for many years, despite my persistent efforts, they have been closed to any suggestions or advice that does not suit their (increasingly Woke) narrative which has become very distant from timeless Liberal values. My active support for the Liberal Party has been redirected to other avenues which I regard as bastions of our great democracy with the IPA being first and foremost.
The “ broad church” of the Liberal Party refers to its appeal and inclusion of Australians from all walks of life who share common views. One of the sources of its current failures is that this broad church is now taken to mean Australians incorporating the whole gamut of political views. Consequently the Party is now home to a cabal of business lobbyists, socialists, humanists and concensus believers. I accept that there are, fortunately, many sound politicians and others behind the scenes like Tony Abbott still active within the Party, and including some newish recruits, but they are too few in number and declining.
Hence my reliance on others, principally the IPA, to promote the vital principles and policies Australia needs.
The Libs made the 'broad-church' so wide that the roof is caving in. A return to conservative basics is their only answer.
America is a republic entering a late-stage of decay and it will fall into faux-democratic rule by globalist elites and megacorporations. Australia will fall into the same hole.
Always enjoy your commentary John, here and on Sky.
My comment on Aston. I keep hearing Roshena Campbell was an outstanding candidate, etc. I do not intend to be unkind but we have to be truthful. An outstanding candidate would have won the seat. An outstanding candidate is one that appeals to the majority of the electorate. With a 6% swing against that clearly was not the case. Who got it so wrong, not Roshena, the Liberal Party once again. They once again destroyed a very good candidate the result of which sadly will impact Campbell for some time. Tudge theoretically would have won the seat, a local, let’s say a male candidate, the only male candidate there could have won the seat. The dunces in the Liberal Party that organised this charade should be sacked because once again these clever dicks thought they could out think, outsmart, the electorate and conservative voters.
This was a protest vote, a vote of no confidence to the back room know alls because it is a loss of no consequence, a Liberal win would have made little difference to the federal governance outcome. The protest voters worked that out long before the dunces did.
Having worked on booths since 1966 (@16, Nats start young!) and managed a couple of successful marginal seats campaigns against Libs, their demise is no surprise. 'They've so often been represented or organized by 'wannabees', social climbers or the 'born to rule' set. These are also often the branch stackers or staffers chasing safe seats. Most never have enough nous or real world experience to be good solid back-benchers let alone cabinet material.
'Case in point, the now lost seat of Tangney. Denis Jensen served 3 terms as a superb member increasing his margin at each election. One of the very few in the Reps with a solid science background always so valuable to have. Effective in handling national media but wouldn't give priority to pandering to the branch stackers. The second rate ex state director Ben Morten ran a particularly scurrilous campaign to gain pr-selection then in-spite of being at ScoMos right hand, lost the seat 2 elections later. Earlier 'the machine' was so out of it's senses John Howard had to come over the top of State Council to hang on to Jensen.
Needing to sort out who & what they represent is obvious but the Liberals have to be able to organize and to hold back the second rate wannabees etc.
When your primary vote drops from having a 6 in front of it to having a 4, you have lost about 25% to 30% of your base.
We need to look at the decline of Liberal support in the heartland seats of Menzies time over a timeframe of 20 to 30 years not just from the 2019 to 2022 elections.
Teal voters are 70% to 80% never Liberal voters and 20% to 30% former Liberal voters (depending on your timeline).
A lot of that 20% are disaffected because the Liberal Party has lost its ethical foundations as the Party of good government, openness and transparency and support for the rule of law. Too many of its Parliamentarians are mendacious and mendicant and given a free pass by even more unfit leaders.
Menzies won close elections by harnessing the votes of professionals and women (especially those married to blue collar unionised workers) as well as small business entrepreneurial types. We can't win with tradies and battlers alone. You certainly can't win by appealing to the disaffected self-identifying victim types.
The more you make government accountable and open, the less people will want to be in government and that is a good thing because we need smaller government and reducing the demand for government is important.
I am fairly new to Australian politics, hailing from UK. Looking at the policies of the various parties here the party which best aligns with my views( and seemingly those of the IPA) is One Nation. I don’t understand why conservatives are not voting for them or even endorsing them. The Liberal party to me seems to be left of centre and moving further that way all the time. If people are dissatisfied with Left/Green policies why don’t they vote for the smaller parties, you get what you vote for in the end.
Even something as simple as business attire. About the only people wearing suits and formal attire are lawyers (in court). Everywhere else its casual wear, sometimes neat and sometimes not. Go to a Liberal Party event and invariably it's formalised dress. Probably a simplistic observation but it has some validity.
Almost without exception the media described the Labor candidate for Aston as a breast cancer survivor and suburban mum. I don’t recall any saying she is a longtime union official who doesn’t live in the seat. But Labor portrayed the Liberal candidate as a blow-in (a la Kristina Keneally). Hardly fair.
Agree, tge Broad Church is not about having a different view to your party but coming frim different backgrounds, different religions, different working lives. It is about sharing the SAME values with small business iwners, workers, professionals and stay at home mothers.
The families of older Liberals feel that they are controlled by old fashioned lawyers. I’m afraid that this is true. I am ashamed by the knee jerk reactions of people against anyone from the conservative Liberal Party. Policies must be applicable to modern life and they must carefully explain how these policies will improve life in Australians. It’s not hard to arrange this with a much bigger social media base and ordinary people being Liberal candidates who live in their electorates. Plain speakers deliver the news to most of their audience. Simple really. From an older Liberal member.
True. There's certainly a big cohort of younger people who feel left behind, so they look for others to blame...only natural. But there are massive community shifts on gay marriage and gay issues, voluntary euthanasia, the idea of family (no longer needs to be mother/father/kids) etc etc. These community shifts have occurred across all demographics and assaulted conservative values, particularly religiously based conservative values. This has created a crisis in the Liberal Party which has traditionally found political strength in balancing conservative with liberal values. The 'balance' has been blown out of the water. On top of that Covid blew up the Coalition's 'prudent' economic management positioning.
I spent Easter attending Marxism Conference 2023. 1000 attended displaying passion, organisation, firmness in where they are going and belief in their cause. They feel they are in the ascendancy and they are probably right. Stark contrast to the liberal party!!
John, ...welcome to Substack......I think the comments section will be useful to get a gauge of what people in an online forum are thinking about that is not available via the weekly emails from Scott and Chetna.
The Liberal party has moved to the left which has lost liberal voters. John Howard himself started moving to the left from when he was first elected. He was one who decided to accept the lies of the IPCC and went along with Kyoto. Turnbull before turning to the liberals wanted to Join the ALP. He went on to start the destruction of the Liberals.
I believe the junk statement of Pesutto concerning Trans. people and condemning Moira Deeming resulted in a large number of Liberals sending a signal they want nothing to do with a weak woke party particularly in Victoria. Peter Dutton will get some past liberal members back if he gets rid of Pesutto and lays some policies for the party. In the Federal spear they need to get rid of the useless Birmingham and that Andrew Bragg. Great that Dutton and the coalition will not back the Yes vote. In fact aborigines should not be recognised in the constitution other than being ordinary citizen.
I think the wording that Tony Abbott suggested for the preamble only mentioned aboriginals as being the first inhabitants and the British as bringing nationhood and emigrants as bringing diversity. Such a statement includes everybody, not just the aboriginal people.
The IPA promotes and explains the values which have been foundational to the success of Australia on any number of measures. It does so through many outlets to get its messages out to the Australian public. There are a number of other sources and individuals with similar goals, but none which can remotely compare with the IPA.
I am a very long-standing and active Liberal Party member. However, for many years, despite my persistent efforts, they have been closed to any suggestions or advice that does not suit their (increasingly Woke) narrative which has become very distant from timeless Liberal values. My active support for the Liberal Party has been redirected to other avenues which I regard as bastions of our great democracy with the IPA being first and foremost.
The “ broad church” of the Liberal Party refers to its appeal and inclusion of Australians from all walks of life who share common views. One of the sources of its current failures is that this broad church is now taken to mean Australians incorporating the whole gamut of political views. Consequently the Party is now home to a cabal of business lobbyists, socialists, humanists and concensus believers. I accept that there are, fortunately, many sound politicians and others behind the scenes like Tony Abbott still active within the Party, and including some newish recruits, but they are too few in number and declining.
Hence my reliance on others, principally the IPA, to promote the vital principles and policies Australia needs.
Thank you John.
The Libs made the 'broad-church' so wide that the roof is caving in. A return to conservative basics is their only answer.
America is a republic entering a late-stage of decay and it will fall into faux-democratic rule by globalist elites and megacorporations. Australia will fall into the same hole.
What’s the definition of conservative. Sounds like a slogan
Always enjoy your commentary John, here and on Sky.
My comment on Aston. I keep hearing Roshena Campbell was an outstanding candidate, etc. I do not intend to be unkind but we have to be truthful. An outstanding candidate would have won the seat. An outstanding candidate is one that appeals to the majority of the electorate. With a 6% swing against that clearly was not the case. Who got it so wrong, not Roshena, the Liberal Party once again. They once again destroyed a very good candidate the result of which sadly will impact Campbell for some time. Tudge theoretically would have won the seat, a local, let’s say a male candidate, the only male candidate there could have won the seat. The dunces in the Liberal Party that organised this charade should be sacked because once again these clever dicks thought they could out think, outsmart, the electorate and conservative voters.
This was a protest vote, a vote of no confidence to the back room know alls because it is a loss of no consequence, a Liberal win would have made little difference to the federal governance outcome. The protest voters worked that out long before the dunces did.
Having worked on booths since 1966 (@16, Nats start young!) and managed a couple of successful marginal seats campaigns against Libs, their demise is no surprise. 'They've so often been represented or organized by 'wannabees', social climbers or the 'born to rule' set. These are also often the branch stackers or staffers chasing safe seats. Most never have enough nous or real world experience to be good solid back-benchers let alone cabinet material.
'Case in point, the now lost seat of Tangney. Denis Jensen served 3 terms as a superb member increasing his margin at each election. One of the very few in the Reps with a solid science background always so valuable to have. Effective in handling national media but wouldn't give priority to pandering to the branch stackers. The second rate ex state director Ben Morten ran a particularly scurrilous campaign to gain pr-selection then in-spite of being at ScoMos right hand, lost the seat 2 elections later. Earlier 'the machine' was so out of it's senses John Howard had to come over the top of State Council to hang on to Jensen.
Needing to sort out who & what they represent is obvious but the Liberals have to be able to organize and to hold back the second rate wannabees etc.
When your primary vote drops from having a 6 in front of it to having a 4, you have lost about 25% to 30% of your base.
We need to look at the decline of Liberal support in the heartland seats of Menzies time over a timeframe of 20 to 30 years not just from the 2019 to 2022 elections.
Teal voters are 70% to 80% never Liberal voters and 20% to 30% former Liberal voters (depending on your timeline).
A lot of that 20% are disaffected because the Liberal Party has lost its ethical foundations as the Party of good government, openness and transparency and support for the rule of law. Too many of its Parliamentarians are mendacious and mendicant and given a free pass by even more unfit leaders.
Menzies won close elections by harnessing the votes of professionals and women (especially those married to blue collar unionised workers) as well as small business entrepreneurial types. We can't win with tradies and battlers alone. You certainly can't win by appealing to the disaffected self-identifying victim types.
The more you make government accountable and open, the less people will want to be in government and that is a good thing because we need smaller government and reducing the demand for government is important.
I am fairly new to Australian politics, hailing from UK. Looking at the policies of the various parties here the party which best aligns with my views( and seemingly those of the IPA) is One Nation. I don’t understand why conservatives are not voting for them or even endorsing them. The Liberal party to me seems to be left of centre and moving further that way all the time. If people are dissatisfied with Left/Green policies why don’t they vote for the smaller parties, you get what you vote for in the end.
Wonderful newsletter John.
The survey figures at the end of your piece are frightening but I am ashamed to say close to the mark.
\Gerard O'Brien
The demographics are changing as shown by the 60% vs. 32%. I think this explains a lot of what is happening today.
It’s not just demographics. It’s attitudes, belief systems and sense of future that’s changed.
Agreed, but I think these changes might at least in part result from the changlng demographics; i.e., generation shifts in beliefs.
Even something as simple as business attire. About the only people wearing suits and formal attire are lawyers (in court). Everywhere else its casual wear, sometimes neat and sometimes not. Go to a Liberal Party event and invariably it's formalised dress. Probably a simplistic observation but it has some validity.
Almost without exception the media described the Labor candidate for Aston as a breast cancer survivor and suburban mum. I don’t recall any saying she is a longtime union official who doesn’t live in the seat. But Labor portrayed the Liberal candidate as a blow-in (a la Kristina Keneally). Hardly fair.
Nothing fair in politics!!!
Agree, tge Broad Church is not about having a different view to your party but coming frim different backgrounds, different religions, different working lives. It is about sharing the SAME values with small business iwners, workers, professionals and stay at home mothers.
The families of older Liberals feel that they are controlled by old fashioned lawyers. I’m afraid that this is true. I am ashamed by the knee jerk reactions of people against anyone from the conservative Liberal Party. Policies must be applicable to modern life and they must carefully explain how these policies will improve life in Australians. It’s not hard to arrange this with a much bigger social media base and ordinary people being Liberal candidates who live in their electorates. Plain speakers deliver the news to most of their audience. Simple really. From an older Liberal member.
True. There's certainly a big cohort of younger people who feel left behind, so they look for others to blame...only natural. But there are massive community shifts on gay marriage and gay issues, voluntary euthanasia, the idea of family (no longer needs to be mother/father/kids) etc etc. These community shifts have occurred across all demographics and assaulted conservative values, particularly religiously based conservative values. This has created a crisis in the Liberal Party which has traditionally found political strength in balancing conservative with liberal values. The 'balance' has been blown out of the water. On top of that Covid blew up the Coalition's 'prudent' economic management positioning.
I spent Easter attending Marxism Conference 2023. 1000 attended displaying passion, organisation, firmness in where they are going and belief in their cause. They feel they are in the ascendancy and they are probably right. Stark contrast to the liberal party!!
John, ...welcome to Substack......I think the comments section will be useful to get a gauge of what people in an online forum are thinking about that is not available via the weekly emails from Scott and Chetna.